Risk and reliability analysis is an area of growing importance in geotechnical engineering, where many variables have to be considered. Statistics, reliability modeling and engineering judgment are employed together to develop risk and decision analyses for civil engineering systems. The resulting engineering models are used to make probabilistic predictions, which are applied to geotechnical problems.
Introduction -- uncertainty and risk in geotechnical engineering.
Risk, decisions and judgment.
Classification and mapping.
Spatial variability within homogeneous deposits.
Random field theory.
Reliability analysis and error propagation.
First order second moment (FOSM) methods.
Point estimate methods.
The Hasofer--Lind approach (FORM).
Monte Carlo simulation methods.
Load and resistance factor design.
Stochastic finite elements.
Event tree analysis.
System reliability assessment.
Appendix A: A primer on probability theory.
A.1 Notation and axioms.
A.2 Elementary results.
A.3 Total probability and Bayes' theorem.
A.4 Discrete distributions.
A.5 Continuous distributions.
A.6 Multiple variables.
A.7 Functions of random variables.
Gregory B. Baecher, Univ. of Maryland, USA
John T. Christian, Consulting Engineer, Waban, Massachusetts, USA